Business Overview
USA Today is a versatile media marketing company that generates revenue from digital advertising, subscription products, print circulation, and SMB marketing services (LocaliQ).
The company manages a portfolio of news and media brands that supplies content across digital and print platforms. USA Today monetizes this audience through advertising (mainly digital display), subscriptions to content, and marketing services provided to small and medium-sized businesses.
Revenue Drivers
For USA Today revenue is modeled using two core segments: digital revenue and print revenue. This simplifies the business into its two main monetization channels while still capturing the key underlying drivers.
- Digital Revenue
Digital revenue includes both advertising income and subscription income from the company’s digital platforms.
In the model, digital revenue is driven by:
- Digital visitors
- Engagement (visits per user and pages per visit)
- Monetization intensity (ads per page, CPMs, and fill rates)
- Subscription base (digital subscribers)
- Pricing power (ARPU trends)
Digital revenue highlights the primary growth engine of USA Today, connecting performance to both traffic and monetization efficiency. Even with subscriber declines, pricing and advertising efforts can still offset volume pressure.
Print Revenue
Print revenue reflects USA Today’s legacy circulation and print advertising services.
It’s driven by:
- Print subscriber base
- Print ARPU
Forecast
Over the forecast period, total revenue is expected to remain relatively stable, as continued declines in print are largely offset by strong digital advertising and subscription monetization. EBITDA growth is more driven by margin improvement rather than top-line expansion, reflecting a shift in revenue mix toward higher-margin digital segments.
| Driver / Assumption | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE ASSUMPTIONS | |||||||||
| Total Revenue ($M) | 2,900 | 2,660 | 2,500 | 2,360 | 2,250 | 2,165 | 2,110 | 2,090 | 2,100 |
| YoY Revenue Growth | -3.0% | -8.3% | -6.0% | -4.6% | -4.0% | -3.1% | -1.6% | -0.5% | 0.5% |
| Digital Revenue ($M) | 780 | 920 | 1,100 | 1,160 | 1,260 | 1,355 | 1,455 | 1,555 | 1,660 |
| Digital Revenue % of Total | 26.9% | 34.6% | 44.0% | 49.2% | 56.0% | 62.6% | 69.0% | 74.4% | 79.0% |
| Print Revenue ($M) | 2,120 | 1,740 | 1,400 | 1,200 | 990 | 810 | 655 | 535 | 440 |
| Print Revenue YoY Decline | -10.0% | -17.9% | -19.5% | -13.6% | -14.9% | -16.0% | -15.6% | -15.1% | -15.3% |
EBITDA + Margins
EBITDA is expected to remain stable to modestly expand over the forecast period, driven by improving digital mix and modest operating leverage. While total revenue is relatively flat, margin expansion reflects a gradual shift away from lower-margin print revenue toward higher-margin digital and SMB segments.
| FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024A | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E | FY2030E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | |||||||||
| Digital Revenue | 780 | 920 | 1,100 | 1,160 | 1,260 | 1,355 | 1,455 | 1,555 | 1,660 |
| Print & Commercial Revenue | 2,120 | 1,740 | 1,400 | 1,200 | 990 | 810 | 655 | 535 | 440 |
| Total Revenue | 2,900 | 2,660 | 2,500 | 2,360 | 2,250 | 2,165 | 2,110 | 2,090 | 2,100 |
| Digital % of Revenue | 26.9% | 34.6% | 44.0% | 49.2% | 56.0% | 62.6% | 69.0% | 74.4% | 79.0% |
| YoY Revenue Growth | -8.3% | -6.0% | -5.6% | -4.7% | -3.8% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 0.5% | |
| COST STRUCTURE | |||||||||
| Cost of Revenue | (1,856) | (1,663) | (1,533) | (1,416) | (1,316) | (1,238) | (1,182) | (1,150) | (1,138) |
| Gross Profit | 1,044 | 998 | 968 | 944 | 934 | 927 | 928 | 941 | 962 |
| Gross Margin % | 36.0% | 37.5% | 38.7% | 40.0% | 41.5% | 42.8% | 44.0% | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| OPERATING EXPENSES | |||||||||
| Selling, General & Administrative | (704) | (659) | (638) | (596) | (573) | (561) | (556) | (560) | (568) |
| Restructuring & Integration Costs | (85) | (75) | (60) | (70) | (55) | (45) | (35) | (25) | (20) |
| Depreciation & Amortization | (210) | (200) | (195) | (185) | (175) | (165) | (155) | (145) | (140) |
| Total Operating Expenses (ex-COGS) | (999) | (934) | (893) | (851) | (803) | (771) | (746) | (730) | (728) |
| Operating Income (EBIT) | 45 | 63 | 75 | 93 | 131 | 155 | 183 | 210 | 234 |
| EBIT Margin % | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 11.1% |
| BELOW THE LINE | |||||||||
| Interest Expense, Net | (128) | (130) | (132) | (122) | (110) | (98) | (82) | (68) | (55) |
| Other Non-Operating, Net | (15) | 38 | (10) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Earnings Before Tax (EBT) | (98) | (29) | (67) | (24) | 26 | 62 | 106 | 147 | 184 |
| Income Tax Expense | - | - | - | - | (5) | (14) | (23) | (32) | (40) |
| Net Income (GAAP) | (98) | (29) | (67) | (24) | 21 | 49 | 82 | 115 | 143 |
| GAAP Net Margin % | -3.4% | -1.1% | -2.7% | -1.0% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% |
| ADJUSTED EBITDA RECONCILIATION | |||||||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 255 | 263 | 270 | 278 | 306 | 320 | 338 | 355 | 374 |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin % | 8.8% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 16.0% | 17.0% | 17.8% |
| EBITDA (GAAP — EBIT + D&A) | 255 | 263 | 270 | 278 | 306 | 320 | 338 | 355 | 374 |
Valuation (EV/EBITDA Implied Price Per Share)
To value TDAY, an EV/EBITDA multiple is applied to forecasted EBITDA to derive an implied enterprise value. Equity value is then calculated by adjusting for net debt, and divided by shares outstanding to arrive at an implied share price.
Methodology
The valuation follows a standard approach:
Enterprise Value = EBITDA × EV/EBITDA Multiple
Equity Value = Enterprise Value − Net Debt
Implied Share Price = Equity Value ÷ Shares Outstanding
Key Assumptions:
- EV/EBITDA: 7.0x base case
- Net debt: 795 million
- Shares outstanding: 149M
| EV/EBITDA VALUATION | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | 306 | 320 | 338 | 355 | 374 |
| EV/EBITDA Multiple | 7.0x | 8.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
| Implied EV ($M) | 2,142 | 2,563 | 3,376 | 3,908 | 4,486 |
| Less: Net Debt ($M) | (795) | (650) | (500) | (355) | (220) |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 149.0 | 150.0 | 151.0 | 152.0 | 153.0 |
| ★ EV/EBITDA Implied Share Price | $9.04 | $12.76 | $19.05 | $23.38 | $27.88 |
Interpretation
Under the base case EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.0x, TDAY’s implied valuation reflects a stable earnings profile driven by resilient digital revenue and offsetting print declines. Upside is primarily driven by margin expansion rather than top-line growth, while downside risk is tied to continued print erosion and digital monetization pressure.
Lawsuit
USA Today filed a major lawsuit against Google accusing the company of monopolizing digital advertising technology markets. In late 2025 there was a partial ruling in favor for USA Today (Gannett at the time) claiming that Google controls a monopoly power in parts of the digital advertising sector.
Currently USA Today and Google are proceeding towards trials and negotiations to determine the exact financial damages.
This lawsuit has the ability to transcend the company to new levels on its stock price. As of right now, short interest stands at 12.7% of the float the determination from this lawsuit will easily push the share price $1-$2 higher and the shorts are going to have to cover, pushing the stock another $2 higher.
| SHORT SQUEEZE MECHANICS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Current | Post-Catalyst (Base) | Post-Catalyst (Bull) | |||
| Short Interest (% of Float) | ~12% | ~6% | ~2% | |||
| Shares Short (approx.) | ~18M | ~9M | ~3M | |||
| Shares to Cover (vs current) | — | ~9M | ~15M | |||
| Days to Cover (est.) | ~5-7 days | ~2-3 days | <1 day | |||
| Typical Squeeze Price Amplifier | 1.0x | 1.3-1.5x | 1.8-2.5x | |||
| Estimated Price Impact (squeeze only) | $0 | +$1-3 | +$4-8 | |||
| PRICE TARGET BUILD — END OF 2026 (Your Target: $9-12) | ||||||
| Driver | Bear | Base | Bull | Bull+ | ||
| EV/EBITDA Fundamental Value | $5-6 | $8-9 | $10-11 | $12-14 | ||
| Lawsuit Settlement Premium | $0 | $1-2 | $3-5 | $6-10 | ||
| Short Squeeze Premium | $0 | $1-2 | $2-4 | $4-8 | ||
| Total 2026 Price Target | $5-6 | $9-12 | $14-18 | $20-30 | ||
| PRICE TARGET BUILD — 2028 (Your Target: $25-30) | ||||||
| Driver | Bear | Base | Bull | Bull+ | ||
| Fundamental EV/EBITDA (10x, no lawsuit) | $10-12 | $18-22 | $22-26 | $28-34 | ||
| Balance Sheet Cleanup (debt paydown) | $0-1 | $2-3 | $3-5 | $5-8 | ||
| Multiple Re-rating (digital recognition) | $0 | $2-4 | $4-8 | $8-15 | ||
| Lawsuit Residual / Cash Deployment | $0 | $1-3 | $3-6 | $6-12 | ||
| Total 2028 Price Target | $10-13 | $22-30 | $30-40 | $45-65 |
